Live-Service Games Failures

Developing a live-service game often appears to be a risky venture, yet many industry leaders persist in pursuing this model, eager to capitalize on its potential. Unfortunately, the reality is that only a few titles achieve sustained success, while the majority falter.

In 2025, the gaming landscape was flooded with numerous live-service titles and games that closely resemble this format. Despite the initial excitement, most of these games are now facing significant challenges. As 2026 approaches, data indicates that the majority of these titles have experienced drastic player declines, often losing over 80 to 99 percent of their user base since their debut.

This trend highlights the volatile nature of live-service games and the difficulty in maintaining long-term engagement in a highly competitive market.

An analysis of 19 major titles slated for release in 2025 reveals a concerning trend in player engagement over time. Many of these games have experienced dramatic drops in their active player bases, highlighting the challenges faced by live service titles in maintaining long-term interest.

Using data sourced from SteamDB, it was observed that nearly half of these titles—11 in total—have seen their player counts decline by over 90 percent since their peak. These include notable names such as Supervive, Fragpunk, Mecha Break, Killing Floor 3, Inzoi, Blue Protocol: Star Resonance, FBC: Firebreak, Dune: Awakening, Splitgate 2, Rematch, and Skate.

Additionally, four other titles—Sonic Rumble, Persona 5: The Phantom X, RuneScape: Dragonwilds, and Battlefield 6—have experienced more than an 80 percent reduction from their highest recorded player numbers. Two more games, Umamusume: Pretty Derby and Elden Ring Nightreign, have seen their player counts drop by over 70 percent.

Surprisingly, only two titles have retained a relatively stable player base, with less than 50 percent decline from their peaks. Arc Raiders, one of the year's most anticipated releases, has maintained a minimal loss of just 3.2 percent, while Wuthering Waves continues to grow, reaching its peak player count on Steam as recently as the past month.

This data, accurate as of January 19, 2026, underscores the volatility and competitive nature of the live service gaming landscape, where sustaining player interest remains a formidable challenge.

A glance at some of the standout titles expected in 2025 reveals a troubling trend in the gaming industry. Popular games such as Clair Obscur: Expedition 33, Kingdom Come: Deliverance 2, and Schedule 1 illustrate a clear disconnect between developer ambitions and player preferences. Despite the apparent lack of enthusiasm for this genre, many studios continue to pursue these projects, driven by corporate pressures rather than player demand.

This persistent push into live-service models often originates from executive teams disconnected from the gaming community. They look at the success stories of Fortnite, Marvel Rivals, and Apex Legends and assume that replicating these formulas will yield similar financial gains. Unfortunately, this approach frequently overlooks what makes a game compelling—storytelling, innovation, and quality gameplay—elements that have historically defined the best studios.

Out of the 19 upcoming titles, five stem from studios with strong single-player traditions. These companies have been coerced into adopting live-service mechanics, often against their better judgment. For example, Nightreign managed to avoid some pitfalls with its minimal reliance on battle passes and cosmetics, which some consider a success. Conversely, titles like Skate, FBC: Firebreak, Sonic Rumble, and Persona 5: The Phantom X seem like unnecessary experiments in the live-service space, and their poor reception underscores the risks involved.

FBC: Firebreak serves as a cautionary tale. Developed by Remedy, renowned for their immersive single-player experiences like Control and Alan Wake, the game struggled to find an audience. At its peak, it attracted fewer than 2,000 players on Steam, and over the past month, player numbers have rarely exceeded 100. The lukewarm reception at launch did little to help its prospects.

In the wake of these disappointing numbers and waning engagement, Remedy’s CEO recently resigned, highlighting the toll these failed ventures can take on leadership and staff morale. Such consequences should perhaps serve as a wake-up call for the industry—failing to listen to what players want and forcing studios into models that don’t suit their strengths can have serious repercussions.

Supervive, a game that officially exited early access in 2025, quickly became one of the year’s notable failures. Within less than five months of its full release, the game saw a staggering 99 percent drop in its player base, leading to its immediate discontinuation. Similarly, NetEase’s Fragpunk appears headed for a comparable decline, maintaining only about two percent of its initial players.

Other titles such as Mecha Break, Inzoi, Skate, Killing Floor 3, and Blue Protocol: Star Resonance have also experienced severe player attrition, with fewer than five percent of their launch audiences remaining engaged.

It’s important to note that these statistics are based solely on Steam player data. Nevertheless, it’s reasonable to assume that the discrepancy between Steam and console audiences isn’t substantial enough to reassure industry executives. The rapid decline in player engagement underscores a challenging landscape for live service games entering 2025.

Live Service Gaming Trends

Despite a steep decline of 82% in its Steam player base, Battlefield 6 still maintains a strong presence with nearly 130,000 players simultaneously online, indicating a resilient community. Similarly, Dune: Awakening recently peaked at over 10,000 concurrent users, demonstrating ongoing interest, while RuneScape: Dragonwilds experienced a sharp drop to 826 players in November but has since rebounded to approximately 8,800 active users.

Interestingly, even titles that have lost over 95% of their players continue to generate revenue through in-game purchases and the support of dedicated whales, blurring the lines between traditional success metrics and profitability in live service games.

Two titles stand out amidst these trends: Wuthering Waves and Arc Raiders. Wuthering Waves has cultivated a passionate fanbase willing to rally fiercely for the game, competing with giants like Genshin Impact and Clair Obscur for awards and recognition. This strong community bond is largely attributed to open communication from the developers, Kuro Games, who actively engage with players by delivering regular content updates—a strategy that has proven effective.

For a deeper dive into live service game performance, player retention strategies, and industry insights, subscribing to the newsletter offers comprehensive analysis, including why many launches struggle and which titles manage to succeed.

Meanwhile, Arc Raiders emerges as a significant success story for 2025. Less affected by player attrition than older titles, it continues to draw between 200,000 and 400,000 players daily, with record peaks earlier this year. Despite some criticism over the use of generative AI, the game feels like a genuine effort to craft a quality experience rather than a mere cash grab. Its launch at a discounted price, innovative gameplay, consistent updates, and focus on fairness have helped it sustain a large and engaged audience—much like Helldivers 2 before it.

The gaming landscape of 2026 is shaping up to be heavily influenced by the early releases of live-service titles, setting expectations for the year ahead. Among these, Arknights: Endfield stands out as the first major gacha game slated for launch. While it is anticipated to attract a vast player base initially, reviews have been lukewarm, currently holding a score of 79 on Metacritic, indicating mixed reception.

In stark contrast, Highguard remains shrouded in silence, having received no marketing support following its poor performance at the 2025 Game Awards. The lack of buzz surrounding its debut suggests a challenging road ahead, despite being developed by the team behind Apex Legends' surprise launch in 2019. This history offers some hope, but overall, the project feels like it may struggle to find its footing.

Meanwhile, Bungie's upcoming title, Marathon, offers a glimmer of optimism. After experiencing layoffs over recent years, Bungie appears poised to make a strong statement with this new live-service game. The announcement of its release date and a star-studded voice cast propelled Marathon into the top ten on Steam's bestseller charts. However, whether it will sustain long-term success post-launch remains uncertain.

Other projects like John Carpenter's Toxic Commando and Halloween fail to inspire confidence, largely due to a lack of substantial marketing or innovative appeal. Looking further ahead, the future of live-service gaming appears uncertain, with approximately one-third of AAA developers indicating they are currently developing titles in this genre. This trend suggests a competitive and potentially volatile year for live-service games, with only a few titles likely to break through the noise.

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